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Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Why Bush will win Ohio

I believe very strongly that George W Bush will win the state of Ohio come Nov 2. I have come to believe this by studying the last two Presidential elections. The one between Clinton and Dole in ’96 and Bush and Gore in 2000.

Here are the number of votes the three major candidates got in the ’96 elections

President Clinton - 2,148,222
Senator Bob Dole - 1,859,883
Ross Perot - 483,207

You can get the whole information here

There were three other minor candidates in the race which I am not going to mention here.

In 2000
President George W Bush - 2,351,209
Vice President Al Gore - 2,186,190
Ralph Nader – 117,857
Pat Buchanan - 26,724

You can also see the rest here

Looking at how the counties voted, it was clear that Bob Dole would have won Ohio had Ross Perot not being in the picture. However in 2000, it seems like most of the votes that were cast for Ross Perot moved over to George Bush. Even if you add all the votes Nader got in 2000 to Al Gore’s votes, George W Bush would still have won the state of Ohio.

I don’t believe all the polls that show the election has a “dead heat” in Ohio, I live in this state and it is not. It is a “dead heat” in a few counties, but certainly not for the whole state.

There is saying out there that people usually “vote their pocket book” since Ohio has lost so many jobs, most people here will definitely want to replace George Bush. This is not entirely true. Looking at the way Ohioans voted in ’96 and 2000 tells us that this is not entirely true. If the theory of voting “their pocket book” held true for Ohio, then Both Bob Dole and Ross Perot would not have received the combined 2,343,090 votes they got. Since the economy was doing very well, Clinton should have won the state in a landslide, but he did not. Al Gore did not win the state either in 2000.

I have lived in this state for 8 years. I have come to realize that the majority of the people here vote their beliefs and their values, not their “pocket book”. Most of the people know that elected officials enact policies that could affect their lives and the lives of their children for the next 20 – 30 years, with this in mind, people tend to vote their beliefs and values.

Only 13 days left to Election day. Please go out and Vote your beliefs.

posted by elizabeth @ 7:15 PM